Translation of modelling for public health impact
How should we evaluate modelling work?
Sebastian Funk
https://epiforecasts.io
“All models are wrong, but some are useful”
George Box
- How do we know when models are useful?
- Does it matter how wrong they are?
To answer these questions, we need to evaluate modelling work.
What and how to evaluate?
Some examples
Evaluation of public health impact
- Modelling can save lives, but it can also do harm. How do we tell one from the other?
- In order to assess the public health impact of modelling, we need to qualify and quantify it.
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Summary / discussion points
- Evaluation can relate to model correctness, process, impact, etc.
- Correctness does not directly relate to greater/better impact (although there are good reasons to aim for quality and correctness)
- Evaluating utility to decision makers is not the same as evaluating public health impacts of modelling
- Any evaluation needs clarity on what is being evaluated how before the work is done
Ongoing activity in this space
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